This article proposes a way of introducing some organization and tractability in climate science, generating more widely credible evaluations of climate science, and imposing some discipline on the processing and interpretation of climate information. I propose a two-part policy instrument...

This paper studies the coexistence of two competing mechanisms in the same market, where one follows the posted-offer rule and the other one incorporates a double-auction mechanism. We explore this coexistence within a sports betting example in which bettors are free to choose between a bookie...

Data on individual trades in prediction markets relating to the 2008 and 2012 US Presidential elections reveal that traders vary enormously in their behavior. This contrasts with the standard prediction-market models, which assume relatively homogeneous participants who differ only in their...

This Article proceeds in six parts. Part I is an introduction to the issue of manipulation in political prediction markets. Part II offers a brief background to prediction markets generally. Part III catalogues five examples of activity considered manipulative in political prediction markets,...

This chapter explores the use of prediction markets to generate, collect, and process information relating to a variety of environmental problems. Prediction markets, artificially constructed markets for contracts for contingent payoffs, have been used to generate projections of future...

Prediction markets are a popular structure for a collective intelligence platform. The exact mechanism by which information known to the participating traders is incorporated into the market price is unknown. This paper demonstrates a novel method derived from the Kyle (1985) model for price...