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A principal component simulation of age-specific fertility : impacts of family and social policy on reproductive behavior in Germany
Vanella, Patrizio; Deschermeier, Philipp - 2018
This contribution proposes a simulation approach for the indirect estimation of age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs …) and the total fertility rate (TFR) for Germany via time series modeling of the principal components of the ASFRs. The … probability of 75%. Based on this result, it is unlikely that the fertility level will fall back to its extremely low levels of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011860247
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Stochastic population analysis : a functional data approach
Fang, Lei; Härdle, Wolfgang - 2015
Based on the Lee-Carter (LC) model, the benchmark in population forecasting, a variety of extensions and modifications are proposed in this paper. We investigate one of the extensions, the Hyndman-Ullah (HU) method and apply it to Asian demographic data sets: China, Japan and Taiwan. It combines...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010477583
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Projection des familles, une vérification
Rallu, Jean-Louis - In: Le défi de l'incertitude nouvelles approches en …, (pp. 237-247). 1999
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001517791
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The Impact of Pandemic on Fertility in Russia : A Few Assumptions for the Forecast
Kazenin, Konstantin - 2021
fertility in developed countries. The significance of the outcome of these studies is under consideration designed to forecast … changes in fertility resulted from the pandemic in Russia, as well as to plan state policies to support fertility under the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013230257
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Age- and sex-specific fertility in Germany until the year 2040 : the impact of international migration
Vanella, Patrizio - 2017
Good forecasts for future fertility developments are of high importance in political planning, especially regarding … measures in social insurance. Fertility is the main driver of demographic change, since small fertility rates lead to a … on a quasi-three principal component model are fitted to the age- and sex-specific fertility rates (ASSFR). Age …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011722114
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Machine learning and multiple abortions
Kumar, Pradeep; Nicodemo, Catia; Oreffice, Sonia; … - 2024
This study employs six Machine Learning methods - Logit, Lasso-Logit, Ridge-Logit, Random Forest, Extreme Gradient Boosting, and an Ensemble - alongside registry data on abortions in Spain from 2011-2019 to predict multiple abortions and assess monetary savings through targeted interventions. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014545133
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Stochastic household forecasts by coherent random shares predictions
Keilman, Nico; Duin, Coen van - 2014 - This version 14 April 2014
We compute a stochastic household forecast for the Netherlands by the random share method. Time series of shares of persons in nine household positions, broken down by sex and five-year age group for the years 1996-2010 are modelled by means of the Hyndman-Booth-Yasmeen product-ratio variant of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010354141
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Nowcasting in Real Time Using Popularity Priors
Monokroussos, George - 2020
We construct a “Google Recession Index” (GRI) using Google Trends data on internet search popularity, which tracks the public's attention to recession-related keywords in real time. We then compare nowcasts made with and without this index using both a standard dynamic factor model and a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012841873
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Stochastic Population Forecast for Germany and Its Consequence for the German Pension System
Härdle, Wolfgang - 2017
for Germany is derived through a stochastic population renewal process using forecasts of mortality, fertility and … indices of mortality and fertility rates. These models are then used in the simulation of future vital rates to obtain age …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012966275
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Stochastic population forecast for Germany and its consequence for the German pension system
Härdle, Wolfgang; Mysickova, Alena - 2009
for Germany is derived through a stochastic population renewal process using forecasts of mortality, fertility and … indices of mortality and fertility rates. These models are then used in the simulation of future vital rates to obtain age …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003814452