In the data mining and machine learning fields, forecasting the direction of price change can be generally formulated as a supervised classfii cation. This paper attempts to predict the direction of daily changes of the Nasdaq Composite Index (NCI) and of the Standard & Poor's 500 Composite...

This paper compares the statistical and economic performance of state-of-the-art highfrequency based multivariate volatility models with a simpler, widely used alternative-the Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) filter. Using over two decades of 100 U.S. stock returns (2002-2023), we...