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Blair, Robert; Blattman, Christopher; Hartman, Alexandra - 2017

new stylized facts for theory to explain. In this case, ethnic cleavages and power-sharing predicted violence, while …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014142292

Spatial Panel Count Data : Modeling and Forecasting of Urban Crimes

Glaser, Stephanie; Jung, Robert; Schweikert, Karsten - 2021

The steadily growing access to high-quality spatio-temporal crime count data with a high level of spatial detail allows … to uncover interesting relationships between crime types within and between small regional units. Data coherent … methods of moments. The models’ usefulness is demonstrated in a forecasting exercise of monthly crime counts at census tract …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013238764

Machine Learning Can Predict Shooting Victimization Well Enough to Help Prevent It

Heller, Sara B.; Jakubowski, Benjamin; Jelveh, Zubin; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022

This paper shows that shootings are predictable enough to be preventable. Using arrest and victimization records for almost 644,000 people from the Chicago Police Department, we train a machine learning model to predict the risk of being shot in the next 18 months. We address central concerns...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013334389

Space-Time Autoregressive Models and Forecasting National, Regional and State Crime Rates

Shoesmith, Gary - 2014

property crime rates. The disaggregate state (Florida) violent crime model includes murder, rape, robbery, and assault and the … property crime model, burglary, larceny, and motor vehicle theft. In experimental forecasts, ST-AR RMSEs are compared to those … future crime rates as either the most recent rate or according to the most recent change in rates. The ST-AR model is of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014146023

Predicting the Leadership Mindset of Wildland Firefighters

Gapud, Stephanie; Hair, Joseph F. - 2021

Leadership behaviors of wildland firefighting teams engaged in firefighting activities are “shared” despite the existence of a highly bureaucratic and hierarchical organizational structure. This paradoxical type of leadership appears to be based on individual perceptions of the effectiveness...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013226275

Informationally Robust Welfare Predictions Under Second-Degree Price Discrimination

Yang, Kai Hao - 2019

In an environment that features second-degree price discrimination, this paper fully characterizes the set of surplus divisions that can arise from all possible information consumers have about their valuation. By extending the techniques developed in a companion paper (Yang, 2019a), I show that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012894284

Forecasting law enforcement frequency of internet+ coal mine safety supervision

Long, Yuzhen; Yang, Chunli; Li, Xianchun; Lu, Weidong; … - In: International journal of energy sector management 18 (2024) 4, pp. 789-811

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014550804

Do Legal Origins Predict Legal Substance?

Bradford, Anu - 2020

There is a large body of research in economics and law suggesting that the legal origins of a country—that is, whether its legal regime is based on English common law or French, German, or Nordic civil law—profoundly impacts a range of outcomes. However, the exact relationship between legal...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012843750

Machine learning approaches to testing institutional hypotheses : the case of Acemoglu, Johnson, and Robinson (2001)

Diallo, Boubacar - In: Empirical economics : a quarterly journal of the … 62 (2022) 5, pp. 2587-2600

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013197346

Criminal incident prediction using a point-pattern-based density model

Liu, Hua; Brown, Donald E. - In: International journal of forecasting 19 (2003) 4, pp. 603-622

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001818835