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Rationalizable conjectural equilibrium : a framework for robust predictions

Esponda, Ignacio - In: Theoretical economics : TE ; an open access journal in … 8 (2013) 2, pp. 467-501

I introduce a new framework to study environments with both structural and strategic uncertainty, different from Harsanyi's (1967-8) `Bayesian games', that allows a researcher to test the robustness of Nash predictions while maintaining certain desirable restrictions on players' beliefs. The...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011686678

Cason, Timothy N.; Sharma, Tridib; Vadovic, Radovan - 2022

In most games, for equilibrium to result, players need to forecast the equilibrium strategies of others. We elicit forecasts of outcomes in a series of hawk-dove (aka chicken) games played by other players. We ask whether these forecasts are consistent with any correlated equilibrium of a class...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014079715

Cason, Timothy N. - 2019

predictors believing that the choice of actions in the 2×2 game are correlated. The extent of correlation over action profiles …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012890126

Predictably Satisfied : Contributions of Artificial Intelligence to Intra-Organizational Communication

von Schenk, Alicia - 2021

, higher accuracy of an AI's predictions reduces information asymmetries and fosters truthful communication. Detailed …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013224606

A Twitter-Based Prediction Market : Social Network Approach

Qiu, Liangfei; Rui, Huaxia; Whinston, Andrew B. - 2012

Information aggregation mechanisms are designed explicitly for collecting and aggregating dispersed information. An excellent example of the use of this "wisdom of crowds" is a prediction market. The purpose of our Twitter-based prediction market is to suggest that carefully designed market...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014040950

Can Observers Predict Trustworthiness?

Belot, Michèle; Bhaskar, V.; van de Ven, Jeroen - 2008

players on a TV show play a high stakes prisoner's dilemma with pre-play communication. Our subjects report probabilistic … beliefs that each player cooperates, before and after communication. Subjects correctly predict that women, and players who …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014213778

Counterfactuals with Latent Information

Bergemann, Dirk - 2019

We describe a methodology for making counterfactual predictions when the information held by strategic agents is a latent parameter. The analyst observes behavior which is rationalized by a Bayesian model in which agents maximize expected utility, given partial and diﬀerential information...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892592

Counterfactuals with Latent Information

Bergemann, Dirk - 2019

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012893994

Pricing via Artificial Intelligence : The Impact of Neural Network Architecture on Algorithmic Collusion

Zhang, Weipeng - 2023

-competitive pricing strategies in infinitely repeated Nash-Bertrand pricing games without human communication. Such algorithms have been … able to converge due to the temporal correlation of consecutive states and actions in the learning process, which restores … necessary training processes breaks the aforementioned temporal correlation, rendering the algorithms ineffective in learning …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014344267

Predicting and Understanding Initial Play

Fudenberg, Drew - 2019

We use machine learning to uncover regularities in the initial play of matrix games. We first train a prediction algorithm on data from past experiments. Examining the games where our algorithm predicts correctly, but existing economic models don't, leads us to add a parameter to the best...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012900561