uncertainty: such rules respond to the one-year ahead inflation forecast and to the current output gap, and incorporate a …

This paper shows that for five small commodity-exporting countries that have adopted inflation targeting monetary … policies, world commodity price aggregates have predictive power for their CPI and PPI inflation, particularly once possible …

consider U.S. inflation dynamics. A purely noncausal AR model gets the strongest support, but there is also substantial … evidence in favor of other noncausal AR models allowing for dependence on past inflation. Thus, although U.S. inflation … specifications seem to yield inflation forecasts which are superior to those from alternative models especially at longer forecast …

context of forecasting inflation. The RBFN model is a hybrid model whose learning process is much faster than the BPN model …

with the traditional econometric approaches to forecasting the inflation rate. Of the traditional econometric models we use …

real activity, is regarded as the maintained theory of inflation. Models of inflation without the output gap include the … inflation, we examine models of inflation that do and do not use the output gap. The Phillips curve, which relates inflation to … equation of exchange of the quantity theory of money, the real interest rate gap, and two versions of the model. Since none of …

Both theory and extant empirical evidence suggest that the cross-sectional asymmetry across disaggregated price indexes … might be useful in the forecasting of aggregate inflation. Trimmed-mean inflation estimators have been shown to be useful … devices for forecasting headline PCE inflation. But does this stem from their ability to signal the underlying trend, or does …