The research literature shows that investor sentiment is a contrarian predictor of aggregate stock market returns. However, we contend that investor sentiment only predicts aggregate stock market returns during high-sentiment states where overpricing is more prevalent than underpricing. Using a...

Recent evidence on the relationship between investor sentiment and subsequent monthly market returns in China shows that investor sentiment is a reliable momentum predictor since an increase (decrease) in investor sentiment leads to higher (lower) future returns. However, we suggest that...