The present paper analyzes the forecastability and tradability of volatility on the large S&P500 index and the liquid SPY ETF, VIX index and VXX ETN. Even though there is already a huge array of literature on forecasting high frequency volatility, most publications only evaluate the forecast in...

In recent years, Fund staff has prepared cross-country analyses of macroeconomic vulnerabilities in low-income countries, focusing on the risk of sharp declines in economic growth and of debt distress. We discuss routes to broadening this focus by adding several macroeconomic and macrofinancial...

Based on upper echelon theory, we employ machine learning to explore how CEO characteristics influence corporate violations using a large-scale dataset of listed firms in China for the period 2010-2020. Comparing ten machine learning methods, we find that eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost)...