We study whether stock market returns in oil-exporting countries can be predicted by oil price changes, and we investigate the link between predictability and the quality of each country's institutions. Returns are predictable for half the countries we consider, and predictability is stronger...

We describe a new mechanism that induces accurate forecasts within an organization while reducing moral hazards and the stigma associated with negative opinions. It is based on the notion of identity escrow, whereby the identity of a forecaster is kept anonymous and only revealed when a number...

This study examines the use of analytic techniques to develop a model that predicts the potential default of Small Business Administration (SBA) backed loans issued to American franchisees. Data collected by World Franchising (WF) in their 2008 survey and by SBA from 2000-2008, covering 271...