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The paper develops a tail risk forecasting model that incorporates the wealth of economic and financial information … available to risk managers. The approach can be viewed as a regularized extension of the two-stage GARCH-EVT model of McNeil and … extreme value distribution of risk. We use a rich data set from the US equity market to explore when this additional …
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Several studies have found that the cross-section of stock returns reflects a risk premium for bearing downside risk …; however, existing measures of downside risk have poor power for predicting returns. Therefore, this paper proposes a novel … measure of downside risk, the ES-implied beta, to improve the prediction of the cross-section of asset returns. The ES …
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