You're probably familiar, at least in passing, with the 'convexity' of long-term bonds - i.e. that yields dropping 1% produce a bigger price move than yields rising 1%. A significant amount of brainpower has gone into understanding all the ramifications of this convexity in the fixed income...

In a variety of contexts I've been both victim and perpetrator of more bad forecasts than I care to admit. I resolved to do something about it, and find a forecast process which produced results which actually aided insight and were genuinely useful - in contrast to many forecast exercises which...