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Expectations affect economic decisions, and inaccurate expectations are costly. Expectations can be wrong due to either bias (systematic mistakes) or noise (unsystematic mistakes). We develop a framework for quantifying the level of noise in survey expectations. The method is based on the...
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persistent rise in inflation following the COVID-19 recession. …
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experts providing inflation forecasts based on their education, experience, gender, and environment. We provide alternative … interpretations of factors affecting experts' inflation forecasting performance, boldness, and pessimism by linking behavioral …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014349216
This study presents a new European investor sentiment index, EURsent, based on new individual sentiment proxies such as VSTOXX, gold, and the German bond yield spread, and studies the spillover and contagion between the United States and Europe. Furthermore, it analyses the simultaneous...
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We use inflation and income growth expectations from the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey to measure the subjective … expected pass-through of inflation to income in the main euro area countries. By aggregating consumers' responses to … methodology allows one to examine how the pass-through varies along the probability distribution of expected inflation, which …
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