This thesis contributes to the literature through an empirical analysis of the first decade of single European monetary policy within a real-time approach and offers new specifications of the policy reaction function of Central Banks based on a novel econometric modeling technique. The results...

This paper investigates the predictability of the European monetary policy through the eyes of the professional forecasters from a large investment bank. The analysis is based on forward-looking Actual and Perceived Taylor Rules for the European Central Bank which are estimated in real-time...