This paper develops a methodology of evaluating trade potential under different integration scenarios using a panel of disaggregated exports. The methodology is applied to compare trade potential of Ukraine under three counterfactual scenarios: joining CU, signing FTA with EU, and joining EU....

This paper explores the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), in terms of changes in trade costs and investment, on trade and consumer welfare in China, the EU, and the rest of the World. We employ a general equilibrium structural gravity approach, where the production side is modeled...