We develop a theoretical model of international trade pricing in which individual exporters and importers bargain over the transaction price and exposure to exchange rate fluctuations. We find that the choice of price and invoicing currency reflects the full market structure, including the...

The continuing strength of the dollar has fueled interest in the relationship between productivity and exchange rates. An analysis of the link between the dollar's movements and productivity developments in the United States, Japan, and the euro area suggests that productivity can account for...

A narrowing of the U.S. current account deficit through exchange rate movements is likely to entail a substantial depreciation of the dollar, as stressed in the widely cited contribution by Obstfeld and Rogoff (2005). We assess how the adjustment is affected by the high degree of international...

On the eve of a major change in the world monetary system, the adoption of a single currency in Europe, our theoretical understanding of the implications of the exchange rate regime for trade and capital flows is still limited. We argue that two key model ingredients are essential to address...

The uncertainty caused by the exchange rate crises of 1992-93 led to two questions: Is monetary union still feasible? What strategies are best for achieving convergence according to the Maastricht criteria? This article addresses these questions by examining the progress made by the five major...

This paper evaluates rigorously the predictive power of the head-and-shoulders pattern as applied to daily exchange rates. Though such visual, nonlinear chart patterns are applied frequently by technical analysts, our paper is one of the first to evaluate the predictive power of such patterns....

The paper studies the differential impact of exchange rate fluctuations on households in a country. I extend earlier research by relaxing the assumption of complete international sectoral specialization. My setup allows for the presence of several different sectors in a given country, each...

Lack of commitment in monetary policy leads to the well known Barro-Gordon inflation bias. In this paper, we argue that two phenomena associated with the time inconsistency problem have been overlooked in the exchange rate debate. We show that, absent commitment, independent monetary policy can...