We construct a two-period model of an open economy and use the model to analyze the welfare implications of fixed and floating exchange regimes. Consumers have perfect foresight and save by holding domestic and foreign bonds, which are chosen according to relative interest rates, deflated by the...

This paper develops a quantitative, dynamic, open-economy model which endogenously generates high exchange rate volatility, whereas a low degree of pass-through stems from both nominal rigidities (in the form of local currency pricing) and price discrimination. We model real exchange rate...

This paper examines the available data that may shed light on the carry trade in Japanese yen. We define an individual or a sector to be engaged in the carry trade if it has a short position in yen and a long position in other currencies. The tendency of large yen movements to be skewed toward...

That international trade flows respond to changes in real exchange rates is beyond question. What is less clear is whether the measurement of real exchange rates matters for characterizing and predicting such responses. To identify the implications of choosing a given measure of the real...

Many explanations of the stylized facts concerning real exchange rate movements focus on monetary shocks, but it is often found empirically that monetary shocks are unimportant. I provide evidence that is contrary to this empirical finding. Using over 100 years of data, I estimate the...

This paper considers the prediction of large depreciations (both nominal and real) in a panel of industrialized countries using a probit methodology. The current account balance/GDP ratio has a modest but statistically significant effect on the estimated probability of a large depreciation, and...

Exchange rate pass-through is the phenomenon whereby changes in the value of foreign exchange are reflected in changes in import prices. This paper presents a model in which firms are price setters who anticipate exchange rate changes. In equilibrium, firms' strategies incorporate expectations...

In "Exchange Rates and Direct Investment: An Imperfect Capital Markets Approach," Kenneth Froot and Jeremy Stein [1991] develop a new finance-based theory to answer an old question--the relationship, if any, between the flow of foreign direct investment and the exchange rate. Their theory, based...

In the context of a flexible-price monetary exchange rate model and the assumption of uncovered interest parity, we obtain a measure of the fundamental determinant of exchange rates. Daily data for the European Monetary System is then used to explore the importance of non-linearities in the...

A central puzzle in international finance is that real exchange rates are volatile and, in stark contradiction to efficient risk-sharing, negatively correlated with cross-country consumption ratios. This paper shows that a standard international business cycle model with incomplete asset markets...