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represent nicely the two opposing forecasting philosophies. The DSGE model on the one hand has a strong theoretical economic …-horizon forecasting and structural models should be used in long-horizon forecasting. Our paper compareds both state-of-the art data …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012991248
encouraging. In a pseudo out-of-sample exercise, our approach beats relevant benchmarks for forecasting CPI inflation and an …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010508347
the beginning of 2018. They also have performed well in forecasting the direction of inflation. In terms of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011901421
Im Zentrum dieser Dissertation steht das Beschreiben und Erklären von Konjunkturdynamiken. Motiviert durch den außerordentlich starken wirtschaftlichen Einbruch in 2008/2009 betont die Arbeit dabei die Wichtigkeit der Nutzung von nichtlinearen Modellansätzen. Die Dissertation kann als Beitrag...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012154125
Monitoring economic conditions in real time, or nowcasting, is among the key tasks routinely performed by economists. Nowcasting entails some key challenges, which also characterise modern Big Data analytics, often referred to as the three "Vs": the large number of time series continuously...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012259379
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012991163
what causes large factor models to perform better or more poorly at forecasting than other models. Our results suggest that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012776085
forecasts, respectively. Whether forecasters rely on a balanced or an unbalanced panel and how the forecasting equation is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014053755
The main goal of the article is to investigate forecasting quality of two approaches to modelling main macroeconomic … accuracy not inferior to that of structural models. Additional advantage of their approach is that the forecasting procedure … can be mostly automated and the influence of subjective decisions made in the forecasting process can be significantly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010512536
The article compares forecast quality from two atheoretical models. Neither method assumed a priori causality and forecasts were generated without additional assumptions about regressors. Tendency survey data was used within the Bayesian averaging of classical estimates (BACE) framework and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011349021