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forecasting daily electricity prices in two of the main European markets, Germany and Italy. We do that by means of mixed …-frequency models, introducing a Bayesian approach to reverse unrestricted MIDAS models (RU-MIDAS). We study the forecasting accuracy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011987142
forecasting macroeconomic key variables such as GDP. However, the DFM has some weaknesses. For nowcasting, the dynamic factor … on euro-area data show that the now- and forecasting performance of our new model is superior to that of the subset …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011566828
We test and report on time series modelling and forecasting using several US. Leading economic indicators (LEI) as an … input to forecasting real US. GDP and the unemployment rate. These time series have been addressed before, but our results … unemployment rate series. We tested the forecasting ability of best univariate and best bivariate models over 60- and 120-period …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012214684
as benchmark. Finally, we replicate the forecasting experiment including as predictors both an indicator of unemployment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012147303
We propose a novel time-varying parameters mixed-frequency dynamic factor model which is integrated into a dynamic model averaging framework for macroeconomic nowcasting. Our suggested model can efficiently deal with the nature of the real-time data flow as well as parameter uncertainty and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012119825
We propose a parsimonious semiparametric method for macroeconomic forecasting during episodes of sudden changes. Based …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011708260
forecasting solutions. In this context, the paper develops new forecasting methods for an old problem by employing 13 machine …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013362692
Based on the 2012 Version of the Romanian Macromodel, the first section of this paper discusses the evolution of the Romanian economy in 2014. The previous simulations were revised taking into account the changes in the internal and external socio-economic conjuncture or in the available...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013019550
Policymakers, firms, and investors closely monitor traditional survey-based consumer confidence indicators and treat it as an important piece of economic information. We propose a latent factor model for the vector of monthly survey-based consumer confidence and daily sentiment embedded in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013249899
In India, the first official estimate of quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) is released approximately 7-8 weeks after the end of the reference quarter. To provide an early estimate of current quarter GDP growth, we construct Coincident Economic Indicators for India (CEIIs) using a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013329304