The aim of this paper is twofold. First, for West Germany, France, Italy and US, we econometrically select within a …

Member States are permanently excluded. However, there remains a risk that France and Germany will use the idea of a … whether the core is driven by France and Germany or led by a trilateral grouping including the UK. The future of core Europe … depends on Germany. The idea of a core Europe still has enormous appeal in Germany, given its long intellectual tradition and …

derived from the business surveys of the three major economies within the European Monetary Union (France, Germany, and Italy … in France and Germany; as far as Italy is concerned, forecasts are produced using a model that in the recent past proved …