We consider the problem of estimating the volatility of a financial asset from a time series record of length T. We believe the underlying volatility process is smooth, possibly stationary, and with potential abrupt changes due to market news. By drawing parallels between time series and...

Properties of three well-known and frequently applied first-order models for modelling and forecasting volatility in financial series such as stock and exchange rate returns are considered. These are the standard Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH), the Exponential...

This paper attempts to determine the relationship between conditional stock market volatility and macroeconomic volatility using monthly data for Turkey from 1986 to 2003. The macroeconomic variables used include industrial production, the money supply M1, inflation, an exchange rate variable,...

This paper attempts to determine the relationship between conditional stock market volatility and macroeconomic volatility using monthly data for Turkey from 1986 to 2003. The macroeconomic variables used include industrial production, the money supply M1, inflation, an exchange rate variable,...