Following the work of Shin (1993) and Cain, Law and Peel (1997, 2001), several researchers have reported estimates of the fraction of money placed on sports betting by "insiders" with superior information to bookmakers. We show the method for estimating the fraction of insiders used in this...

Research on sports betting markets has generally found a favorite-longshot bias, the empirical pattern for loss rates for bets on longshots to be higher than for favorites, which implies the odds do not reflect the underlying probabilities. The existing literature focuses largely on pari-mutuel...

Sports betting is growing rapidly in the US after its legalization by the Supreme Court in 2018. This paper describes the treatment of gambling winnings and losses in the federal tax code and shows how the system may incentivize some gamblers to substantially increase the scale of their betting...

We describe how the presence of insiders with superior information about potential outcomes of sporting events affects odds set by bookmakers, using a generalized version of the model in Shin (1991). The model has been widely cited as an explanation for the pattern of favorite-longshot bias...

The CFTC has recently licensed a commercial prediction market to operate in the US. Previous theoretical work has not incorporated that prediction markets charge fees. We examine the impact of fees by introducing them to a model in which the market price equals the true probability when there...