In this paper the probability of a player winning a tennis match is modelled, with the probability being updated on a point-by-point basis throughout the duration of the match. This modelled probability of winning the match is then compared on a point-by-point basis with the implied probability...

Two regularities in financial economics are that prices underreact to news events and that they display short-term momentum. This paper tests for the presence of these regularities in prediction markets offered by the betting exchange Betfair on the 2008 Ryder Cup Golf Competition. Betfair...

Recent research has hypothesized that a higher concentration of informed traders in a market implies that prices are more efficient. A reasonable next question is whether large price movements in markets with a relatively more informed clientele are more indicative of information realization. We...