People exhibit excessive confidence in visually-based estimates, which in turn biases decision making. Three experiments support this assertion. Experiment 1 shows a strong impact of presentation format on estimation of proportions. Experiment 2 shows that people rely on these erroneous...

Anecdotal evidence suggests that in a gambling environment consumers may end up betting more than they had initially planned. The authors assess this phenomenon in a series of three experiments, where people are exposed to sequential and fair gambles in a two-stage process (planned and actual...