This paper explores the specification and use of uncertainty measures in constructions of policy forecasts of money market activity. The concept of a policy forecast implies efforts not only to explicitly condition forecasts on assumptions regarding short-run operating procedures but also to...

This paper, written for a Federal Reserve Staff Review of Monetary Control Procedures, explores the short-run volatility consequences of money stock targeting procedures under current (1981) alternative operating procedures. Conclusions include: the odds are at least two to one that a portion of...