An important question for central banks is how they should report the uncertainty of their forecasts. This paper … discusses a way in which a central bank could report the uncertainty of its forecasts in a world in which it used a single …

An important question for central banks is how they should report the uncertainty of their forecasts. This paper … discusses a way in which a central bank could report the uncertainty of its forecasts in a world in which it used a single …

Central banks face uncertainty about the true location of the effective lower bound (ELB) on nominal interest rates. We …

We show that an increase in aggregate uncertainty - measured by stock market volatility - reduces productivity growth … uncertainty, firms that are credit constrained switch the composition of investment by reducing productivity-enhancing investment … uncertainty (Baker et al., 2016) is used instead of stock market volatility as a measure of aggregate uncertainty. …