We use a version of the Fuhrer-Moore model to study the effects of expectations and central bank credibility on the economy's dynamic transition path during a disinflation. Simulations are compared under four different specifications of the model that vary according to the way that expectations...

Inflation targeting (IT)--a policy framework that directly targets an explicit inflation goal has gained widespread attention recently as it has been adopted by several OECD countries. The paper examines the British inflation targeting experience since 1993 by focusing on the out-of- sample...

This paper develops a small forward-looking macroeconomic model where the Federal Reserve estimates the level of potential output in real time by running a regression on past output data. The Fed's perceived output gap is used as an input to the monetary policy rule while the true output gap...

This paper examines the optimal monetary policy under discretion using a small macroeconomic model that allows for varying degrees of forward-looking behavior. We quantify how forward-looking behavior affects the optimal response to inflation and the output gap in the central bank's interest...