We build a model economy in which Fed watching occurs. There is a huge number of blogs, financial letters, and news reporting that talks about what the Federal Reserve is likely to do. We model this behavior by allowing for banks to Fed watch, meaning that the bank will apply a costly...

This paper explores ways to integrate model uncertainty into policy evaluation. We first describe a general framework for the incorporation of model uncertainty into standard econometric calculations. This framework employs Bayesian model averaging methods that have begun to appear in a range of...