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Eine vergleichsweise locker gehandhabte Geldpolitik der Zentralbank scheint vor dem Hintergrund eines Zusammenhangs zwischen monetären Aggregaten und der nominalen Einkommens- oder Preisentwicklung vertretbar. Tatsächlich aber ist es schwierig, Ursache und Wirkung zu unterscheiden. Vor diesem...
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The link between London interbank interest rates and future inflation in the UK is investigated over a period which includes several changes in monetary policy regime. Recursive estimation is used to identify appropriate breakpoints in the sample and a moving-block bootstrap is used to...
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The Spring 2003 Quarterly Bulletin contained a report on modelling and forecasting at the Bank of England by Adrian Pagan. This article is a postscript to Professor Pagan's original report, and covers the introduction of the Bank's new macroeconomic model (the Bank of England Quarterly Model, or...
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