A growing body of empirical literature has established interest rate rules as a convenient way to model and interpret monetary policy. However, as pointed out by Rudebusch (1998), vector autoregression (VAR) models used to recover the central banks' reaction functions generally rely on the...

This paper presents empirical evidence on the disagreement among Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) forecasts. In contrast to earlier studies that analyze the range of FOMC forecasts available in the Monetary Policy Report to the Congress, we analyze the forecasts made by each individual...