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measures on forecasts themselves, there appear some limits of the same measures when we study their impact on forecast errors …. Our findings, indeed, suggest that deviations of the economic forecast data from the realized ones (RGDP and the current … forecast errors, especially, are not affected at all by those measures. A possible explanation (among others) could be …
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standard deviation of individual forecasts around the median Consensus Forecast as proxy for forecast uncertainty. Our sample … react significantly to inflation forecast uncertainty by reducing their policy rates in times of higher inflation … forecast uncertainty. We conclude with some implications for optimal monetary policy rules and central bank watchers …
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Monetary policy shocks affect interest rates at long horizons (10 years or more). Furthermore, the private sector's real GDP forecasts are revised upward in response to a monetary tightening. These facts challenge the prevailing theories in academic and policy circles. In this paper, I propose a...
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We introduce a new measure called Inflation-at-Risk (I@R) associated with (left and right) tail inflation risk. We estimate I@R using survey-based density forecasts. We show that it contains information not covered by usual inflation risk indicators which focus on inflation uncertainty and do...
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approximating strict inflation-forecast targeting are likely to have undesirable properties. We also show that economies with more … general forecast-based policy rules are particularly susceptible to indeterminacy of rational expectations equilibria. We …
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