The authors develop an early warning system for macroeconomic vulnerability for several Latin American countries, drawing on the work of Kaminsky, Lizondo, and Reinhart (1997) and Kaminsky (1988). They build a composite leading indicator that signals macroeconomic vulnerability, showing that,...

This paper examines the problem of variable selection in linear regression models. Bayesian model averaging has become an important tool in empirical settings with large numbers of potential regressors and relatively limited numbers of observations. The paper analyzes the effect of a variety of...

A decade long experience shows that monitoring the performance of public and private monopolies in South America is proving to be the hard part of the reform process. The operators who control most of the information needed for regulatory purposes have little interest in volunteering their...

This paper is a contribution to the understanding of global interconnections through the evaluation and validation of the capabilities and properties of MULTIMOD, a multiregional macroeconomic model, developed and maintained at the International Monetary Fund. The author finds the model...

This report presents the short- and long-run behavior of primary commodity prices and the implications of movements in these prices for developing countries. Most earlier studies of the long-term trend in the net barter terms of trade between primary commodities and manufactures have suffered...

Worldwide privatization of the telecommunications industry, and the introduction of competition in the sector, together with the ever-increasing rate of technological advance in telecommunications, raise new and critical challenges for regulation. Fo matters of pricing, universal service...

Large-scale simulation-based studies rely on at least three properties of pseudorandom number sequences: they behave in many ways like truly random numbers; they can be replicated; and they can be generated in parallel. There has been some divergence, however, between empirical techniques...

The authors discuss the use of imputed data in regression analysis, in particular the use of highly disaggregated welfare indicators (from so-called"poverty maps"). They show that such indicators can be used both as explanatory variables on the right-hand side and as the phenomenon to explain on...

This study implements and tests a mathematical programming model to estimate interregional, interindustry transaction flows in a national system of economic regions based on an interregional accounting framework and initial information of interregional shipments. A national input-output (IO)...

Geographical Information Systems (GIS) offers preservationists a unique tool with the potential to revolutionize hazard mitigation for historic resources. The program’s ability to link information to a specific geographical location and efficiently disperse this information can solve two of...