It is investigated whether Euro-area variables can be forecast better based on synthetic time series for the pre-Euro period or by using just data from Germany for the pre-Euro period. Our forecast comparison is based on quarterly data for the period 1970Q1 - 2003Q4 for ten macroeconomic...

In this paper we analyze the sources of German unemployment within a structural vector error correction model (SVECM) framework. For this purpose, we propose a method to estimate an exactly identified Subset SVECM, which is a SVECM with short run parameter restrictions. A cointegration analysis...

Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models have become one of the dominant tools for the empirical analysis of macroeconomic time series. Sometimes the flexibility of VAR models leads to overparameterized models, making accurate estimates of impulse responses and forecasts difficult. This book...