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The use of GARCH models with stable Paretian innovations in financial modeling has been recently suggested in the literature. This class of processes is attractive because it allows for conditional skewness and leptokurtosis of financial returns without ruling out normality. This contribution...
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forecasting horizons. Therefore, a long memory volatility model compared to a short memory GARCH model does not appear to improve … specification, in the forecasting of multi-period Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) across 20 stock indices worldwide …-ahead forecasting horizons relative to the short memory GARCH specification. Additionally, the results suggest that underestimation of …
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The volatility clustering observed in financial market data implies that large net yield shocks increase the … probability of a higher future volatility during the price formation. Starting from the ARCH models which were suggested by Engle …
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