This paper develops a theoretical model for the formation of subjective beliefs on individual survival expectations … survival probability whereas old respondents overestimate their survival probability. Such subjective beliefs violate the … rational expectations paradigm and are also not in line with the predictions of the rational Bayesian learning paradigm. We …

; Monetary Policy ; Expectation ; Learning ; VAR ; Consensus Forecast …

external factors, such as powerful others or chance. Furthermore, some authors suggest that internal control beliefs interact … with self-efficacy beliefs regarding their effects on outcome expectancies and thus optimism. We argue that it is not only … self-efficacy that interacts, but efficacy beliefs about external factors, too. We further hypothesize that the effect of …

A lack of transparency about policy performance can pose a major obstacle to welfare-enhancing policy competition …

A lack of transparency about policy performance can pose a major obstacle to welfare-enhancing policy competition …

A lack of transparency about policy performance can pose a major obstacle to welfare-enhancing policy competition …

A lack of transparency about policy performance can pose a major obstacle to welfareenhancing policy competition across …

In this paper we present an experiment on the false consensus effect. Unlike previous experiments, we provide monetary …