Models recently studied by Farmer (2012, 2013, 2015) predict that, due to labor-market frictions and "animal spirits", stock-market fluctuations should Granger cause fluctuations of the unemployment rate. We performed several Granger-causality tests on more than half a century of data of German...

We use a machine-learning approach known as Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) to reexamine the usefulness of selected leading indicators for predicting recessions. We estimate the BRT approach on German data and study the relative importance of the indicators and their marginal effects on the...

In diesem Beitrag wird analysiert, wie sich die Teilnahme an einer Lehrveranstaltung aus dem Bereich des E-Learning auf das Klausurergebnis auswirkt. Der Leistungsunterschied zwischen Teilnehmern und Nichtteilnehmern lasst sich nicht allein auf die Partizipation an der Veranstaltung...

The paper uses survey data to analyze whether financial market expectations on government budget deficits changed in France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom during the period of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP). Our findings indicate that accuracy of financial expert deficit forecasts...