Müller, Hans Christian - Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE), … - 2011
disentagle whether and to which extent strategic deception or cognitive biases are resposible for this overoptimism, the present … overpessimistic. I propose that the non-existence of a general bias towards overoptimism is due to the lack of incentives to … consciously overgloss future prospects in undisclosed forecasts and that overpessimism may be a consequence of loss aversion. …