Narrow search
Showing 1 - 10 of 12,712
Cover Image
Real-time Markov switching and leading indicators in times of the financial crisis
Theobald, Thomas - 2012
This paper uses several macroeconomic and financial indicators within a Markov Switching (MS) framework to predict the turning points of the business cycle. The presented model is applied to monthly German real-time data covering the recession and the recovery after the financial crisis. We show...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009616498
Cover Image
Forecasting German key macroeconomic variables using large dataset methods
Pirschel, Inske; Wolters, Maik H. - 2014
We study the forecasting performance of three alternative large scale approaches using a dataset for Germany that consists of 123 variables in quarterly frequency. These three approaches handle the dimensionality problem evoked by such a large dataset by aggregating information, yet on different...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010357899
Cover Image
Forecasting German key macroeconomic variables using large dataset methods : conference paper
Pirschel, Inske; Wolters, Maik H. - 2014
We study the forecasting performance of three alternative large scale approaches for German key macroeconomic variables using a dataset that consists of 123 variables in quarterly frequency. These three approaches handle the dimensionality problem evoked by such a large dataset by aggregating...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010489849
Cover Image
Business-cycle reports and the efficiency of macroeconomic forecasts for Germany
Foltas, Alexander; Pierdzioch, Christian - 2020
We study the efficiency of growth and inflation forecasts published by three leading German economic research institutes during a period of time ranging from 1970 to 2017. To this end, we examine whether the information used by the research institutes when they formed their forecasts helps to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012293435
Cover Image
Was kostet die Krise? : Mittelfristige Wachstumsperspektiven in Deutschland, 2010-2014
Buchen, Teresa; Carstensen, Kai; Henzel, Steffen; … - 2010
2009 ist eine Diskussion darüber entbrannt, inwieweit die derzeitige Finanzkrise Einfluss auf die mittelfristigen … Zeitreihenmodellen abgeschätzt. Die Ergebnisse deuten darauf hin, dass das Niveau des Produktionspotenzials aufgrund der Finanzkrise … durch eine Stagnation des technischen Fortschritts verursacht wird. Die Auswirkungen der Finanzkrise auf die mittelfristige …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003952103
Cover Image
Should we trust in leading indicators? : evidence from the recent recession
Heinisch, Katja; Scheufele, Rolf - 2010
-of-sample Instabilitätstests Auskunft über die Stabilität der Prognosemodelle während der aktuellen Finanzkrise. Es wird gezeigt, dass nur wenige …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003961067
Cover Image
Demand or Supply? Price Adjustment During the Covid-19 Pandemic
Balleer, Almut - 2020
We study price-setting behavior in German firm-level survey data to infer the relative importance of supply and demand during the Covid-19 pandemic. Supply and demand forces coexist, but demand shortages dominate in the short run. A reported negative impact of Covid19 on current business is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012829319
Cover Image
Assessing the Macroeconomic Forecasting Performance of Boosting - Evidence for the United States, the Euro Area, and Germany
Buchen, Teresa - 2013
The use of large datasets for macroeconomic forecasting has received a great deal of interest recently. Boosting is one possible method of using high-dimensional data for this purpose. It is a stage-wise additive modelling procedure, which, in a linear specification, becomes a variable selection...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013085278
Cover Image
A first look on the new halle economic projection model
Giesen, Sebastian; Holtemöller, Oliver; Scharff, Juliane; … - 2010
In this paper we develop a small open economy model explaining the joint determination of output, inflation, interest rates, unemployment and the exchange rate in a multi-country framework. Our model – the Halle Economic Projection Model (HEPM) – is closely related to studies recently...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003950731
Cover Image
Assessing the macroeconomic forecasting performance of boosting : evidence for the United States, the Euro Area, and Germany
Buchen, Teresa; Wohlrabe, Klaus - 2013
The use of large datasets for macroeconomic forecasting has received a great deal of interest recently. Boosting is one possible method of using high-dimensional data for this purpose. It is a stage-wise additive modelling procedure, which, in a linear specification, becomes a variable selection...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009721997