an important role in public budget planning. We provide a new quarterly time series for East German GDP and develop a … forecasting approach for East German GDP that takes data availability in real time and regional economic indicators into account …

. In a real-time exercise the model detects recessions timely. Combining the estimated factor and the recession …

turning points of the business cycle. The presented model is applied to monthly German real-time data covering the recession … changing the number of regimes on the real-time path, where both leads to a higher forecast accuracy. Changing the number of … determine as early as possible the point in time, from which the last recession structurally exceeded the previous ones. In fact …

turning points of the business cycle. The presented model is applied to monthly German real-time data covering the recession … adjusting of the number of regimes on the real-time path, which both lead to higher forecast accuracy through the non … which are either normal or extraordinary, i.e. specifically determining as early as possible the point in time from which …