Resource utilization, or "slack," is widely held to be an important determinant of inflation dynamics. As the world has become more globalized in recent decades, some have argued that the concept of slack that is relevant is global rather than domestic (the "global slack hypothesis"). This line...

U.S. inflation and real economic activity became more difficult to forecast during the Great Moderation. We investigate the possibility that the decline in the ability to forecast inflation may be due to greater globalization. As countries become more integrated through trade and financial...

The financial crisis that began in August 2007 and intensified in the fall of 2008 pushed the global economy into a severe downturn that some have called the Great Recession. The decline in trade and the protectionist instincts that invariably come to the fore in difficult economic times have...

Resource utilization, or "slack", is widely held to be an important determinant of inflation dynamics. As the world has become more globalized in recent decades, some have argued that the concept of slack that is relevant is global rather than domestic (the "global slack hypothesis"). This line...

The growth of globalization in recent decades has increased the importance of external factors as drivers of the business cycle in many countries. Globalization affects countries not just at the macro level but at the level of states and metro areas as well. This paper isolates the relative...

A mix of global, national and state-specific shocks help drive employment fluctuations between U.S. states. Econometric modeling shows such differences among metropolitan areas also reflect a mix of shocks. Texas cities strongly tied to oil and gas activity appear more affected by energy-sector...