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standard volatility models such as the GARCH(1,1) are more accurate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012847547
We document asymmetric networks of implied volatility spillovers across global stock and commodity markets as well as … the US Treasury market. There are significant asymmetries in the roles of US stock and bond markets as volatility … suppliers to other countries and markets. Shocks from the US generate intensifying volatility spillovers across countries and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012989008
significant volatility clustering. Furthermore, this study puts forward sudden slumps and spikes in the conditional covariances …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014258229
Several large volatility matrix inference procedures have been developed, based on the latent factor model. They often … assumed that there are a few of common factors, which can account for volatility dynamics. However, several studies have …-specific factors explain their own country's volatility dynamics. To account for this, we propose the Double Principal Orthogonal …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014077921
Using OECD composite leading indicators (CLI), we assess empirically whether the ability of the country-specific CLIs to predict economic activity has diminished in recent years, e.g. due to rapid advances in globalisation. Overall, we find evidence that the CLI encompasses useful information...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013153432
Inflation co-moves across countries and several papers have shown that lags of this common inflation can help to forecast country inflation. This paper constructs forecasts of common (or 'global') inflation using survey forecasts of country inflation. These forecasts of global inflation have...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012982775
This paper predicts the likelihood that a restaurant will close within the next one to two years using a Yelp restaurant dataset and a high dimensional gradient boosting machine called LightGBM (hereafter GBM). This model, trained on more than 20,000 individual restaurants, has an accuracy just...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012848600
challenge for economists. The International Monetary Fund proposes within its periodic World Economic Outlook report a measure …-frequency information. Pseudo real-time results show that this approach provides reliable and timely nowcasts of the world GDP annual growth …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013045125
, inflation volatility has been typically neglected, while it is clearly relevant both from a policy point of view and for … inflation stochastic volatility is indeed important, and a substantial share of it can be attributed to a global factor that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012919564
This study compares two channels for global impact on local volatility: the direct channel in which global variables … affect the expected value of local volatility but not its persistence, and a new channel in which global variables affect … local volatility by changing its persistence over time. The economic importance of each channel is measured by its …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012835899