What is the relationship between gold prices and inflation? The answer does not only depend on the studied time window, but also on the definition of inflation. We work with forty years of data and apply a Johansen test of cointegration to the price of gold and inflation indices in the United...

The issue of gold and silver price manipulation, in particular price suppression, is examined. We use a mixture of normal approach to decompose the returns into abnormal and control samples. Price suppression is a form of market manipulation of the runs type where longer negative runs with lower...

The compass rose pattern in financial data may indicate the presence of a nonlinear, possibly chaotic, data generating mechanism. Analysis reveals that over four equivalent subperiods, from 1996 to 2015, the compass rose pattern in gold returns fades. This feature provides an opportunity to...

Previous research has identified that investors place more emphasis on technical analysis than fundamental analysis, however the research has largely been confined to daily data and stock market indices. This paper studies whether intraday technical trading rules produce significant payoffs in...

Much academic and investor analysis and commentary sees the four main precious metals as a single market, integrated and to some degree with each metal a substitute for the other. This proposition, which can be explicit or implicit can be challenged on economic grounds and on statistical...

We assess whether two classes of bubbles occur in the spot price of gold, rational speculative and periodically bursting bubbles, using gold’s lease rates for the first time in the literature as a measure of its fundamental value. This question is of particular significance as these are the...

This paper analyzes a large set of factors that potentially influence the price of gold using Bayesian Model Averaging and Ordinary Least Squares for comparison. We examine the evolution of the importance of factors through time, the role of the time horizon (daily versus monthly),...