The market for U.S. Treasury securities operates around-the-clock from the three main trading centers of Tokyo, London, and New York. We examine this market for volatility spillovers using the methodology employed by Engle, Ito, and Lin (1990) for the foreign exchange market. We find meteor...

We construct probability forecasts for episodes of price deflation (i.e., a falling price level) using yields on nominal and real U.S. Treasury bonds. The deflation probability forecasts identify two “deflation scares” during the past decade: a mild one following the 2001 recession, and a...

We find striking intraday adjustment patterns for price volatility, trading volume, and bid-ask spreads in the U.S. Treasuries market around the time of macroeconomic announcements. The patterns suggest certain hypotheses about price formation and liquidity provision in multiple-dealer markets....

Using data on U.S. Treasury dealer positions from 1990 to 2006, we find evidence of a significant role for dealers in the intertemporal intermediation of new Treasury security supply. Dealers regularly take into inventory a large share of Treasury issuance so that dealer positions increase...

Several studies have shown that, ex-post, the issuance of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) has cost U.S. taxpayers money. We propose that evaluations of the TIPS program be more comprehensive and focus on the ex-ante costs of TIPS issuance versus nominal Treasury issuance and,...