This paper takes stock of the ECB's macroeconometric modelling strategy by focusing on the models and applications used in the Forecasting and Policy Modelling Division. We focus on the guiding principles underpinning the current portfolio of the main macroeconomic models and illustrate how they...

In this paper, we propose a novel approach for the ex-ante assessment of tax reforms accounting for second-round effects, i.e. the dynamic scoring of tax reforms. We combine a microsimulation model for selected European countries with VAR estimates of macro responses and, exploiting a unique...

This paper evaluates two hypothetical budget-neutral reforms that shift resources from family tax expenditures to family cash transfers. We evaluate these reforms using a structural labor supply model based on the microsimulation EUROMOD model and EU-SILC data. We find that both reforms have an...