This paper uses a vector autoregression (VAR) approach to identify the causes of the 1990-92 recession in the UK. The VAR approach is shown to be particularly pertinent for quantifying the relative magnitude of the different demand shocks, and in decomposing them into monetary and expectational...

This paper uses a vector autoregression (VAR) approach to identify the causes of the 1990-92 recession in the UK. The VAR approach is shown to be particularly pertinent for quantifying the relative magnitude of the different demand shocks, and in decomposing them into monetary and expectational...

The Spring 2003 Quarterly Bulletin contained a report on modelling and forecasting at the Bank of England by Adrian Pagan. This article is a postscript to Professor Pagan's original report, and covers the introduction of the Bank's new macroeconomic model (the Bank of England Quarterly Model, or...