In this paper, a Bayesian approach is suggested to compare unit root models with stationary autoregressive models when both the level and the error variance are subject to structural changes (known as breaks) of an unknown date. Ignoring structural breaks in the error variance may be responsible...

Most macroeconomic data are uncertain - they are estimates rather than perfect measures of underlying economic variables. One symptom of that uncertainty is the propensity of statistical agencies to revise their estimates in the light of new information or methodological advances. This paper...

Detection of structural change is a critical empirical activity, but continuous 'monitoring' of series, for structural changes in real time, raises well-known econometric issues that have been explored in a single series context. If multiple series co-break then it is possible that simultaneous...