How does dismantling deep integration affect international trade? This paper provides new evidence on the consequences of disintegration by estimating the impact of Brexit on goods trade by UK firms. The UK’s exit from the EU’s single market and customs union in January 2021 led to an...

A few months after the UK definitive departure from the EU, this work offers a comprehensive analysis of the trade relations between the two Parties and of their future perspectives in light of the scenario disclosed by the COVID-19 pandemic and by the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA). The...

Auch wenn die Briten die Europäische Union bereits zum 31. Januar 2020 verlassen haben, ist ein "harter Brexit" insofern noch nicht vom Tisch, als sich die beiden Parteien noch nicht auf ein Abkommen über die künftigen wirtschaftlichen Beziehungen geeinigt haben. Die Verhandlungen haben...

During the long process of negotiation after the 2016 Brexit referendum there was a high uncertainty about the final shape of bilateral trade relations between the European Union (EU) and the United Kingdom (UK), especially for particular sectors and firms. Given this context, the paper explores...

This paper explores whether professional macroeconomic forecasters manipulate their forecasts to influence voting outcomes. We model a referendum in which a voter chooses between two policies. The voter relies on a forecaster to learn about the macroeconomic consequences of the policies. The...

The Brexit vote precipitated the unravelling of the UK’s membership of the world’s deepest economic integration agreement. This paper reviews evidence on the realized economic effects of Brexit. The 2016 Brexit referendum changed expectations about future UK-EU relations. Studying its...

This paper investigates the short-run effects of the uncertainties brought along with the Brexit referendum on the bilateral trade between Belgium and its main trading partners. I find that import and export markets have specific dynamics and react differently to changes in political uncertainty...