KEY ISSUES Context. Guatemala's economy has performed solidly since the 2008-09 crisis. Output has converged to potential, inflation is under control, and macroeconomic policies remain prudent. However, risks to the outlook are tilted downwards, while buffers are modest and space for...

This Selected Issues note estimates Guatemala's potential output and output gap using the production function approach, univariate statistical filters, and multivariate models based on the Kalman filter method. In the production function approach, potential output is modeled as a function of...

In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country

Guatemala's economy continues to grow at its potential given existing constraints, with inflation within the monetary policy's target. While political risks remain latent, Guatemala maintains its long-standing track record of macroeconomic stability and prudent policies anchored in a low-growth...

The remarkable resilience of the economy during the pandemic, driven by policy support, favorable credit conditions and a favorable external environment, has almost returned the level of GDP to its pre-pandemic projected trend. Reflecting the prevalence of domestic factors, headline inflation...