Since the prevalence of many chronic health conditions increases with age we might anticipate that as the population ages the proportion with one or more such conditions would rise, as would the cost of treatment. We ask three questions: How much would the overall prevalence of chronic...

We derive transition probability matrices for chronic health conditions using survey prevalence data. Matrices are constructed for successive age groups and the sequence represents the "age dynamics" of the health conditions for a stationary population - the probabilities of acquiring the...

Background: Surveys of chronic health conditions provide information about prevalence but not about the incidence and the process of change within the population. Objective: We show how the "age dynamics" of chronic conditions - the probabilities of contracting the conditions at different ages,...