Using proprietary energy futures position data, we provide evidence that mean hedger profits are negative while speculator (especially hedge fund) profits are positive; that speculators and hedgers who hold long (short) positions when likely hedgers in aggregate are net short (long) have higher...

Using a unique proprietary data set of positions held by all large traders in the crude oil, gasoline, and heating oil futures markets, we use actual trader profits to test the predictions of various commodity futures pricing models. We find statistically and economically significant evidence...