This paper (i) proposes a simple multi-currency model of speculative foreign exchange (FX) trading, (ii) uses a natural experiment to identify the implied components of the optimal trading strategy, and (iii) proposes a new spectral inference method to strengthen the statistical evidence on the...

This paper documents how currency speculators trade when international capital flows generate predictable exchange rate movements. The redefinition of the MSCI world equity index in December 2000 provides an ideal natural experiment identifying exogenous capital flows of index tracking equity...

Over the last decade foreign bond portfolio positions in US dollar assets have risen above the reciprocal US investor positions in foreign currencies. In periods of increased economic uncertainty, institutional investors hedge their international bond positions, which creates a net hedging...

Over the last decade foreign bond portfolio positions in US dollar assets have risen above the reciprocal US investor positions in foreign currencies. In periods of increased economic uncertainty, institutional investors hedge their international bond positions, which creates a net hedging...

Over the past decade, European investment funds have substantially increased their investment in dollar-denominated assets to more than 3.8 USD trillion, which should give raise to substantial currency hedging if US investor have reciprical currency exposures in their international portfolios....